China

Cargo waiting to be loaded on cargo plane in the background

Logistics Market Update – August 2022

Logistics Market Update – August 2022 1920 615 Transmodal

The industry is used to hearing news about port congestion and ships loitering as they wait for berths—at least at the West Coast ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. But the tide has shifted. As carriers try to escape the backlog in the west by moving to the east, the problem has followed along like an albatross. The Ports of Houston and New York now have as many containerships waiting for berths as Los Angeles and Long Beach combined.

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The summer saw still more lockdowns in China as COVID fears continued. Fortunately, Shanghai’s two-month-long lockdown was lifted and with it some speculation that leadership may relent—at least to some extent—on their zero covid policy. There is no escaping the impact on their economy, and manufacturers are becoming increasingly vocal about leaving the country and near-shoring production back to the US and Europe.

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According to a survey of 233 senior procurement executives done by Ivalua, nearly all procurement leaders—97% of them—say they are facing significant disruption in the direct materials supply chain. 67% say they have little to no confidence in existing technology, and 84% say modernization needs to be a priority.

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The Biden Administration is considering a relief package that will roll back some of the tariffs that were previously imposed on China during the Trump Administration—which raised prices on everything from diapers to clothing and furniture. The expectation is that a modest list of tariff suspensions will tamp down inflation.

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The FMC has a bit of a conundrum. Back in June, a vote was passed, giving them more power to handle allegedly unfair business practices carried out by ocean carriers and marine terminal operators. But now they’re saying they don’t have enough staff to enforce reforms. According to FMC Commissioner Carl Bentzel, “We have major rulemakings we’ll be starting in the short term but very few people to do the work, so we’re wrestling with that.”

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Overhead view of worker in warehouse moving a pallet of goods

Logistics Market Update – April 2022

Logistics Market Update – April 2022 1000 665 Transmodal

While lockdowns in China have contributed to a 40% drop in the country’s GDP, there’s also been a drop of 31% in container volumes out of the country this month alone. And the longer lockdowns continue, the worse things will get. Unfortunately, when lockdowns are lifted and all that pent-up demand is released, there’ll be further havoc in the industry. A return to the backlogs of last year will be inevitable. However, the longer the situation in China plays out, the impact on the economy could be even more far-reaching.

Click Here to Read: Chinese lockdowns will create shocks to American supply chains (but China is the biggest loser)

Air cargo is also facing its own pressures with increased rates and decreased capacity, partly due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Any feelings of optimism that the industry may have had—thanks to Covid travel restrictions ending, leading to additional passenger flights and increased cargo capacity—have waned, with some feeling that the industry could be turned “upside down once again.”

Click Here to Read: Air Cargo: Volatility Lingers

It’s not just the air cargo industry that could take a hit because of the war in Ukraine. A recent report from the World Trade Organization (WTO) expects reduced trade volume growth in 2022. Previous forecasts of 4.7% for 2022 and 3.4% for 2023 have been adjusted down to just 3% for 2022. They’re also forecasting lower export growth in Asia, Europe, and North America.

Click Here to Read: Russia-Ukraine conflict puts fragile global trade recovery at risk

For some slightly positive news, ocean carriers are reporting some headway in clearing empty containers dwelling in US ports. Hopefully, this will enable truckers to pick up more imports, thanks to fewer empty containers. However, the problem with empties in the US is far from over.

Click Here to Read: Carriers See Progress in Empties Sweep, But Issues Remain

Finally, the now-famous Evergreen is in the news again. The Ever Forward, one of Evergreen’s carriers, ran aground in the Chesapeake Bay on March 13 and remained stuck for nearly a month. The State of Maryland is requesting that a $100M responsibility fund be set up to cover the cost of any environmental effects.

Click Here to Read: Maryland seeks $100m from Evergreen to cover costs related to Ever Forward grounding

Chart: Vietnam Constant 2010 Prices GDP Quarterly YoY

Will China’s Loss Be Vietnam’s Gain?

Will China’s Loss Be Vietnam’s Gain? 620 348 Transmodal

Vietnam’s economy is one of the fastest growing in Asia — and given the current state of trade in the region, the country is well positioned to continue the expansion of its $200B GDP through export growth. read more